Komeito’s Coalition Exit Causing Electoral Headache for LDP

Tokyo, Dec. 31 (Jiji Press)–The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party’s loss of Komeito as its coalition partner is causing a headache for the main ruling party, as their electoral cooperation provided the LDP with the votes needed to beat opposition candidates in head-to-head contests. For nearly 30 years until its departure from the ruling coalition in October, Komeito had thrown its weight behind LDP candidates in the constituency races of elections for the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of parliament. The LDP’s new coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin no Kai), does not have the national support base that Komeito does, and has been reluctant to coordinate with the larger party over fielding candidates. “Thinking normally, the likeliest option for the next Lower House election is at the end of next year’s ordinary session of parliament,” a former cabinet minister from the LDP told reporters Monday. The ruling bloc may fail to secure a majority because “Komeito has moved away,” the former minister added. The LDP is rushing to select candidates for constituencies which do not already have party members preparing bids. But it has avoided doing so in 11 constituencies contested by Komeito candidates instead of LDP ones in the Lower House election in 2024. It plans to wait until Komeito decides to abandon fielding candidates there before picking its own contenders. The LDP thinks that Komeito supporters may still choose to vote for LDP candidates despite Komeito’s departure from the ruling bloc. Komeito has the backing of 10,000 and 20,000 voters in every constituency. The LDP had received the backing of Komeito in constituency races in exchange for calling on supporters to vote for the smaller party in proportional representation blocs. This has enabled the LDP-Komeito to win Lower House elections. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is actively courting Komeito, a now opposition party, for cooperation, at a time when the LDP’s support rate has not recovered enough. “It will be tough just to lose half of the Komeito votes,” an LDP veteran said. “Even if we can’t cooperate, we can’t afford to stand against (Komeito).” LDP has not even held talks with the JIP about coordinating candidates, according to LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki. The LDP is considering fielding candidates in the six constituencies in the western prefectures of Osaka and Kyoto for which it does not already have a candidate, despite Osaka being the JIP’s stronghold. The lack of progress in LDP-JIP electoral cooperation talks is due to the JIP’s reluctance to fully cooperate with the larger party, out of fears that the public will criticize its decision to join the ruling bloc as an attempt to win elections easily. The JIP has said that it does not need to cooperate in Osaka, according to an LDP official. JIP co-chief Fumitake Fujita said in a recent speech that electoral cooperation with the LDP is “nearly impossible.” But if the ruling parties compete against each other, this may only serve to benefit opposition parties. In the previous Lower House election, LDP and JIP candidates faced off in 155 constituencies, more than half of 289 in total. “It’s better to coordinate if the probability of a ruling party candidate winning the election increases,” a senior LDP official said. “We have told the JIP that we should at least communicate closely.” END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]