FOCUS: Takaichi Takes Risk on Lower House Dissolution

Tokyo, Jan. 15 (Jiji Press)–Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to dissolve the House of Representatives on Jan. 23, the first day of this year’s ordinary parliamentary session, with a determination to solidify the foundations of her administration on the back of high public support for her cabinet launched last October. Takaichi is taking risks, however, as she apparently made up her mind to dissolve the all-important lower chamber of the Diet, the country’s parliament, without consulting senior officials of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Some in the LDP are frustrated at the imminent Lower House breakup and a subsequent general election, which would jeopardize the enactment of the government’s fiscal 2026 draft budget by the April 1 start of the new fiscal year. Relations with the Democratic Party for the People could also be affected in light of the fact that the LDP has called on the opposition party to join the ruling coalition. Now is the Time A close aide to Takaichi said Wednesday that the prime minister, who also serves as LDP president, is opting to dissolve the Lower House to seek voters’ judgment partly because the framework of the ruling coalition has changed. The Japan Innovation Party replaced Komeito as the LDP’s ruling coalition partner in October last year. According to media opinion polls, the approval rating of the Takaichi cabinet remains high, standing above 70 pct in some surveys. A survey by the LDP showed that the party, which currently has 196 of the 465 Lower House seats, would be able to win as many as some 260 seats, more than the majority of 233 seats, if a general election is held in the near future. The situation could change once the ordinary Diet session starts, however, as the Takaichi administration may come under attack from the opposition camp. A senior LDP official who is close to Takaichi said that the prime minister has explored the right timing for dissolving the Lower House so that the party can win a majority in the chamber on its own in a general election that follows. The prime minister determined that now is the time, the official said. Acting on Takaichi’s desire to dissolve the Lower House early, key members of the prime minister’s office, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara, discussed behind closed doors when the Lower House would be dissolved. LDP executives, including Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki, were not allowed to join the talks. “I haven’t heard anything,” Suzuki told people around him, showing displeasure at media reports that Takaichi is considering dissolving the Lower House. Inconsistency The prevailing view is that it will be impossible for the fiscal 2026 draft budget to be passed by the end of fiscal 2025 if the Lower House is dissolved at the beginning of the ordinary Diet session. At a New Year’s press conference Jan. 5, Takaichi said, “It is important to enable people to feel the effects of our anti-inflation and economy-boosting measures, and I am working hard to tackle the challenges in front of me.” Dissolving the Lower House could contradict her remarks at the press conference. If the Lower House is dissolved Jan. 23, the voting date for a snap general election is expected to be set for Feb. 8, 16 days after the breakup, the shortest such period since the end of World War II. The Takaichi government aims to speed up deliberations on the fiscal 2026 draft budget at a special Diet session it hopes to convene in the second half of February. “If we win the trust of the people (through the expected general election), we will be able to accelerate (the implementation of policies),” JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, also governor of the western prefecture of Osaka, told reporters after holding a meeting with Takaichi on Wednesday. Meanwhile, opposition parties slammed Takaichi, with one official saying that she is “sacrificing people’s lives for politics.” Some LDP members are also critical. One of them warned, “The execution of the budget would be delayed (if the Lower House is dissolved), and we would come under fire from the opposition side.” Responsibility DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki previously showed the opposition party’s readiness to cooperate in enacting the fiscal 2026 draft budget. But he recently voiced discontent at the planned Lower House breakup, suggesting that the party would oppose the budget in parliamentary votes. Takaichi, on her part, has expressed her frustration with Tamaki, who has raised the ante on his policy demands while rejecting the ruling bloc’s call for the DPFP to join the coalition, according to an LDP official. The prime minister is apparently determined to advance her policies by having the LDP win a Lower House majority on its own without having to rely on other parties. But criticisms of Takaichi’s plan to dissolve the Lower House are spreading on social media. “If the LDP fails to win an outright Lower House majority in the (upcoming) general election, (Takaichi) could face a flurry of calls for taking responsibility,” an LDP heavyweight said. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]