(Adnkronos) – In one of the latest polls published on the eve of Election Day, Democrats appear one step away from the most important victory, the conquest of the Senate: the Democratic candidates are in fact leading in five of the key Senate races, while a sixth continues to be a neck-and-neck race, according to the New York Times/Siena polls. In particular, the poll registers a big leap forward for Abdul El Sayed, who would have an 11-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers. 53% against 52%.
This is a very consistent lead, never before recorded by other polls, such as CNN’s which spoke of the Democrat 7 points ahead, and which, it should be noted, was collected before the political psychodrama erupted in Michigan, caused by moderate Democrat Haley Stevens, defeated by El Sayed in the primaries, who surprisingly sided with Rogers. Also in Texas, the GOP stronghold that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, James Talarico seems, according to the Nyt poll, to have widened the gap with Ken Paxton, reaching 50% against 43% for the Republican, with a 7-point lead.
The same applies to Maine, where Troy Jackson is at 51% against 45% for long-serving Republican Senator Susan Collins, and in Ohio, where former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is at 49% while Republican Senator Jon Husted is at 44%. The poll confirms the possibility that tomorrow night another sensational result will be recorded, namely the first election of a Democratic senator in Kansas since 1932: Democrat Adam Hamilton is indeed given at 49% against 44% for incumbent Senator Roger Marshall.
In addition to these key states where Democrats appear clearly ahead, there are states, currently controlled by Republicans, where races are neck-and-neck down to the wire. The first is Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola has a lead of just two points, 48% to 46%, over Senator Dan Sullivan, and where a legal battle initiated by the Trump administration has been underway for several days, accusing Democrats of having pushed a namesake of the Republican to run to confuse voters, even though the ballot next to Sullivan’s name says “incumbent senator”. And then Iowa, where Democratic candidate Josh Turek is given just one point ahead, 48% to 47%, over Republican Ashley Hinson.
To win the majority in the Senate, Democrats need to snatch at least four seats from Republicans, one of which, it should be remembered, is already certain on paper, that of North Carolina where Democratic candidate Roy Cooper has long had such a consistent lead over Republican Michael Whatley that the state does not appear on the list of contested races.
It should be noted that in North Carolina the Republican seat is open because incumbent Republican Thom Tillis decided not to run for re-election after Donald Trump had threatened to support a candidate against him in the primaries to punish him for voting against his One Big Beautiful Bill. Also in Texas, the Republican seat is open because in the primaries Trump supported the controversial Paxton against John Cornyn, in the Senate since 2002, whom the tycoon wanted to punish for criticizing him after the January 6, 2021 assault on Congress.
