(Adnkronos) – ”Punish” American President Donald Trump in the Midterm elections, by increasing attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz to raise oil prices and inflict the highest possible pain in terms of lost votes. But also ”warn” future American presidents about the price to pay for a potential war with Iran, even in terms of lost midterm elections. The Iranian leadership is reportedly ”obsessed” with the Midterm elections held on November 3 in the United States, ”they think they can bring down the American presidency”, an Arab diplomat told the Washington Post on condition of anonymity. The model to which Iranian leaders refer is the hostage crisis which, in 1980, hindered the re-election campaign of then-American President Jimmy Carter.
The escalation of violence in the Strait of Hormuz has reached the level of the first days of the war, which broke out on February 28. According to an official who spoke to the Washington Post, Iran conducted about 30 attacks per week in the Strait in September. In October, so far, Iranian forces have struck more than 20 vessels, one of which sank, according to the UKMTO, the maritime monitoring body affiliated with the British military. The United States has nevertheless managed to increase the arrival of crude oil from Gulf countries. “The costs and risks” for maritime transport are high, but the same applies to global energy prices, said Amena Bakr, head of energy for the Middle East at Kpler. “One should not think that the situation is returning to pre-war conditions,” she added.
For Iranian officials, the increase in US operations is “smuggling”. In an interview with the ultraconservative newspaper Kayhan, Iranian parliamentarian Fada Hossein Maleki said the situation in the strait is “very complicated”. ”Iran has an obligation to decisively defend the important global waterway that is our land and our territory,” he stated. Iranian media reports that a Republican defeat in November would benefit Iran, limiting Trump’s actions, threatening him with impeachment, and making it more difficult for him to pursue the war. “He who had promised to end wars, brought his party closer to defeat in the Midterm elections by launching a war against Iran,” states an editorial published by Fars.
According to Negar Mortazavi, an Iranian researcher at the Center for International Policy, a progressive think tank in Washington, although Iran is pushing for a solution to the conflict, the pressure ahead of the Midterms also sends a message to future American administrations. According to Mortazavi, Iranian officials want to make it clear that “attacking Iran has a high political price, including the possibility of losing elections. Tehran is thinking beyond Trump. It wants future American presidents to remember what happened to him before considering another war against Iran”.
