TOKYO REPORT: Imperial Japanese Army Secretly Studied Martial Law in 1945

Tokyo, Sept. 7 (Jiji Press)–The Imperial Japanese Army secretly considered imposing martial law in Tokyo in January 1945, during the final stages of World War II, amid concerns that large-scale U.S. air raids would severely disrupt public order, according to a newly reviewed historical document. The study, however, significantly underestimated the likely scale of destruction from such air raids. Martial law, which would have allowed the military to assume administrative authority and other powers, was ultimately never imposed. According to the document, the army estimated that more than 13,700 people would be killed in two air raids. In the Great Tokyo Air Raid of March 10, 1945, however, around 100,000 people, mainly in downtown areas, were killed–far exceeding the estimate. The document was studied by Seishi Ishibashi, a curator at the Sumida Heritage Museum in Tokyo’s Sumida Ward, which conducts research on damage caused by wartime air raids. It is held by the Defense Ministry’s National Institute for Defense Studies. Devastating Blow The document, titled “Study of Details of Martial Law Operations Based on Assumptions (Draft),” is dated Jan. 29, 1945. It was prepared by the Eastern District Army, which was responsible for defending eastern Japan including Tokyo. The cover bears a red stamp reading “Military Top Secret.” For the first air raid, the document assumed that about 200 B-29 bombers would “intrude over the Imperial capital and drop a mix of bombs and incendiaries” before dawn. The weather was assumed to be clear, with northwesterly winds of 6 to 7 meters per second and a temperature of minus 6 degrees Celsius. Under this scenario, the army projected 2,500 deaths, 25,000 injuries and 150,000 additional disaster victims. It also estimated that 3,000 homes would be destroyed, 10,000 heavily damaged, 25,000 burned down and 3,400 severely burned. For the second raid, assumed to take place seven days later, the study envisioned a large-scale attack on the Keihin district, stretching from Tokyo to Yokohama in Kanagawa Prefecture. The attack was expected to occur in five waves over about four hours from 2:30 a.m., with as many as 500 medium-sized bombers and about 80 heavy bombers attacking at one time and dropping incendiary and explosive bombs. The scenario assumed easterly winds of 10 meters per second. Damage in Tokyo from the second raid was projected at 11,250 deaths, 51,250 injuries and 557,000 other victims. Housing damage was estimated at 97,800 homes destroyed or burned down and 27,200 homes heavily damaged or burned. The scenario also anticipated widespread disruption, including the destruction by fire of ward government offices, police stations and elementary schools; damage to munitions factories and firefighting capabilities; railway suspensions; and disruptions to communications, electricity, gas and water supplies. Defeatism among Residents Additionally, the document described a third scenario, covering the period up to about 15 days after the second air raid. It assumed that recovery efforts by the Tokyo metropolitan government and other authorities would not proceed as planned, and that roughly 80 pct of the temporary restoration work would be completed, in the document’s words, “with the powerful support of the military in the end.” At the same time, the document predicted that Tokyo residents would be gripped by a defeatist mentality, with a considerable number resorting to self-destructive words and actions. Enemy plots and an increase in letters critical of the military were also cited as matters “requiring vigilance.” Under such circumstances, the general staff office of the Eastern District Army was seen determining that martial law was unavoidable, and the army minister would decide to begin the necessary procedures, according to the document. The document set out a sequence of steps under which the matter would be reported to Emperor Hirohito, posthumously known as Emperor Showa, following an emergency cabinet meeting. Under the Constitution of the Empire of Japan, the declaration of martial law was regarded as a sovereign prerogative of the Emperor. “It appears that the scenarios were intended to verify procedures for imposing martial law. Yet during the actual Great Tokyo Air Raid, more than seven times as many people were killed in a single night,” Ishibashi said. “It was unrealistic, and we can only say its underlying assumptions were far too optimistic.” He added, “The document also contains numerous overly convenient descriptions suggesting that the situation would stabilize once the military intervened.” The March 10 raid on Tokyo marked a turning point in the U.S. military’s bombing campaign against Japan. The strategy shifted from high-altitude precision bombing, which had primarily targeted munitions factories, to carpet bombing, in which massive quantities of incendiary bombs were dropped to burn down wide areas of densely packed wooden houses. The Japanese side had failed to anticipate this tactical turn. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]