Deterrence Can Be Enhanced without Nonnuclear Rule Change: Professor

Tokyo, Aug. 26 (Jiji Press)–Japan does not need to revise its nonnuclear principles as it is possible to enhance deterrence without changing the principles, University of Tsukuba professor Atsuko Higashino has said. The issue should not be included in a planned revision of the country’s three major national security documents, Higashino said in a recent interview with Jiji Press. The government should convene a panel of experts on nuclear issues if it decides to amend the three principles of not possessing, not producing and not permitting the entry of nuclear weapons into the country, she said. Although Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has said the government remains committed to the principles, she has stopped short of explicitly pledging to keep intact the principle of not allowing entry. Higashino said that the main purpose of the revision of the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program is to respond to emerging forms of warfare, including operations using drones and artificial intelligence technology. As Japan is part of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty regime, “it’s only a matter of course” that the country does not possess or produce nuclear weapons, leaving the principle of not allowing such weapons into the country the only issue of debate, Higashino said. Even in a situation where the entry of nuclear weapons into Japan is permitted, the issue would differ depending on whether it is during an emergency or in peacetime and whether it is a temporary port call by a nuclear-armed vessel or the full-fledged introduction of nuclear weapons into the country, she explained. She stated that the current debate fails to make such distinctions. The United States maintains its policy of neither confirming nor denying whether its nuclear weapons are present. Higashino opposes a revision of the three principles because a government decision to allow U.S. nuclear weapons to be brought into Japan would not necessarily mean that such weapons would arrive and that deterrence would be enhanced for Japan. “The relationship with U.S. policy and operational practices needs to be examined in detail,” she said. “Even without a revision of the three principles, deterrence can be enhanced by strengthening conventional forces,” Higashino said. While proponents of a revision highlight the possibility of a nuclear attack by China, potential contingencies that Japan may experience are believed to be complex situations including cyberattacks and cognitive warfare, rather than conventional forms of warfare, Higashino said. “Japan’s credibility as a country striving for the abolition and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons and its value as the only country attacked with atomic bombs would be significantly undermined if it revises the principles,” she said. “China would say that Japan is walking along the path toward becoming a nuclear power.” Higashino expects a strong domestic backlash to any change. She added that some would fear the risk of becoming involved in conflicts in which Japan’s ally engages. An important point in revising the strategic documents is “to make an adversary think that it is useless to attack Japan because such action would not damage the country very much,” Higashino said, stressing the importance of resilience, or ability to recover quickly. Strengthening Self-Defense Forces facilities and infrastructure including roads and ports is important, she said, recommending that priority be placed on areas in which increased investment is likely to gain public support. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]