(Adnkronos) – “Iran has been annihilated.” Donald Trump’s words. The intelligence, however, contradicts the President of the United States and outlines a totally different picture. Tehran is still a threat because it has missiles in abundance. Trump, in recent weeks, has described an enemy on its knees: “Iran no longer has a Navy, it doesn’t have an Air Force, missile stocks are almost exhausted,” the American president said and repeated. The information provided by intelligence agencies to members of Congress, in closed-door sessions, is distinctly different.
The Islamic Republic, as the New York Times writes, has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz: the Revolutionary Guards are therefore able to threaten, and in theory, strike, United States warships and American oil tankers crossing the strait, which is crucial for the trade of 20% of the world’s crude oil.
Iran, according to information cited by the newspaper, can use mobile launch ramps within the sites and is able to move missiles. Only three missile sites along the strait are totally inaccessible. Overall, according to estimates, Tehran can still count on about 70% of its mobile launch devices on national territory and retains approximately 70% of its arsenal: this equipment includes both ballistic missiles, capable of hitting other countries in the region, and a smaller quantity of cruise missiles, usable against closer targets, both land and naval.
Satellite images and information acquired with other surveillance technologies also suggest that Iran has regained access to about 90% of its underground bases for missile storage and launch: the facilities are now “partially or fully operational,” as sources cited by the New York Times state.
The data outlines a scenario inconsistent with Trump’s statements. Already on March 9, just 10 days after the start of Operation Epic Fury, the president declared on CBS that Iranian missiles were “reduced to a few specimens” and that the country had “nothing left militarily.” Pete Hegseth’s words were along the same lines: the Secretary of Defense on April 8 emphasized in a press conference at the Pentagon that US and Israeli attacks had “decimated the Iranian army, rendering it ineffective in combat for years to come.”
According to American media, it is the United States that has to deal with a complicated management of weapons and ammunition. Trump and his advisers have repeatedly denied that stocks have been reduced to dangerously low levels by the war against Tehran. The Pentagon has also reportedly reassured European partners, who have purchased billions of dollars worth of ammunition from the United States on behalf of Ukraine. “We have enough ammunition for what we have been assigned at this time,” said General Dan Caine, commander of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a hearing before a House subcommittee.
According to the New York Times, the United States used approximately 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles during the war, a number close to the total quantity of missiles still in the American arsenal. The US also launched more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, about 10 times the number the Pentagon purchases in a year. Furthermore, more than 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles were used during the war: this quantity corresponds to approximately 2 years’ total production. It will take years to replenish the warehouses, the NYT writes. Lockheed Martin, the newspaper highlights, currently produces about 650 Patriot interceptors per year. The company has announced its intention to increase production to 2,000 units per year. Will that be enough to satisfy Trump?
