(Adnkronos) – On the eve of the May 7 vote, with over 5,000 seats to be renewed in 136 English local authorities – including all 32 London boroughs – the local elections in the United Kingdom are shaping up as the most significant political test since the 2024 general election. More than 20 million voters are called to the polls in a round that, despite being administrative, takes on a clear national value, especially for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who approaches the event in a position of great difficulty, amidst negative polls, internal tensions within the Labour Party, and widespread discontent linked to the cost of living and leadership, heavily shaken by the handling of the Epstein case and the appointment of ambassador Peter Mandelson.
Forecasts suggest a possible historic collapse for Labour, which could lose between 50% and 74% of the 2,557 seats it defends. Some estimates speak of up to 1,900 fewer councillors, one of the worst results in the party’s history, following the already heavy defeat a year ago. The Prime Minister’s approval rating remains very low, and both the economic crisis and internal tensions are weighing heavily. A negative outcome risks reopening the internal front, fueling pressure for a change in leadership.
British media are presenting Thursday’s vote as a referendum on traditional parties. According to Tony Travers of the London School of Economics and Political Science, speaking to Adnkronos, voters are using these elections as an opportunity to express their frustration both with the Labour government and with Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, with the latter, according to Independent’s projections, risking to emerge from May 7 with just 455 of their current 1,362 seats. In this context, alternatives represented by Reform and the Greens are strongly emerging, ready to take advantage of the fragilities of traditional forces.
The party led by Nigel Farage is projected to grow strongly, with over 1,300 additional seats and the possibility of winning several local councils, including Sunderland, Thurrock, Wakefield, and Barnsley, as well as taking territories from the Conservatives in counties like Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk. The Greens, led by Zack Polanski, are also expected to make significant progress, with approximately 500 additional seats and substantial ambitions, especially in urban areas, particularly London.
London itself represents the true heart of the challenge. Here, voting takes place for all seats in the 32 boroughs using a multi-member majoritarian system, which allows voters to express multiple preferences. In an increasingly fragmented context, even small shifts in votes can produce significant effects. The capital appears deeply divided: the Greens are challenging Labour strongholds in Inner London such as Hackney, Islington, Lambeth, and Lewisham, while Reform is growing in peripheral areas like Barking and Dagenham, Havering, and Bexley. The division of the progressive vote could even favor a return of the Conservatives in symbolic boroughs like Westminster and Wandsworth.
For Starmer, the London result will be decisive. If Labour were to lose more than 5-6 boroughs, his leadership would immediately be called into question. The Prime Minister is banking on several factors to limit the damage: the possible “tactical vote” against the Conservatives, the mobilization of undecided voters (estimated at around 20%), and holding onto at least 15-18 boroughs. Otherwise, a defeat even in symbolic strongholds like Hackney or Newham would risk dealing a severe blow to his authority, opening a phase of strong political instability in the country.
