(Adnkronos) – The elections held in India are “full of surprises,” as the BBC writes. Because while the vote count is still ongoing, the results are largely clear, with “historic turning points” that, as the Times of India writes, demonstrate a clear current of change in three key states. Starting with West Bengal, which could hold the biggest surprise of all with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP clearly ahead and potentially forming its first government in the state. A plot twist also in Tamil Nadu, where Joseph Vijay, the film star who entered politics, dismantled the state’s consolidated two-party system. On the other hand, a strong anti-government push was registered in Kerala, where the trend reversal is due to the Congress advancing over the left-wing coalition, which fails to secure a third term.
If the trends are confirmed, the Indian prime minister’s party should clearly exceed the majority threshold in West Bengal, a state that has long resisted it and for years has been the great exception to Modi’s political advance. His party dealt a severe blow to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, which has governed the state of over 100 million people since 2011. The BJP’s victory is among the most significant successes of Modi’s 12 years in government, because it is not just the defeat of a governor in office for three terms, but the completion of the party’s long march into eastern India. “The victory in Bengal is a great success for the BJP, a land of promise that has long eluded it,” says author Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
To understand the rise of the BJP, it is useful to refer to the survey conducted by the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (Ddales) which highlighted a growing shift in consensus from urban to suburban areas. A real “urbanization effect” that favored Modi and damaged the Trinamool Congress, which paid for the frustration over mismanagement, corruption, and declining trust in welfare services among middle-class and suburban voters.
In Tamil Nadu, it was instead the triumph of Vijay and his nascent party TVK, which, supported by Generation Z, put pressure on outgoing Prime Minister MK Stalin. His message was simple: “Don’t worry about the candidates, I am running in all constituencies.” His supporters grasped the message and went wild on social media. Now they have made history by helping Vijay’s TVK emerge as the party with the most seats in Tamil Nadu. Now the actor can form the next government if he manages to secure the support of parties like the Congress or other regional entities. If this were to happen, it would be a crucial moment for Tamil Nadu politics because, for the first time in 60 years, a non-Dravidian party would be in power.
Significant changes are also being recorded in Kerala, where politics is often more predictable. The United Democratic Front, the alliance led by the Congress, is ahead of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and is preparing to form the new government, which indicates a further reversal of trend. Equally significant is the fact that the BJP is expected to win two seats, a modest but symbolic result as it is its best ever. The defeat of the LDF, which governed for two consecutive terms, means that for the first time in about fifty years there will be no state government led by the left in India. This raises questions for Indian communist parties, which have seen an erosion of support across the country.
