Japan Sees 8.4-T.-Yen Rise in FY 2034 JGB Interest Costs

Tokyo, April 17 (Jiji Press)–Interest payments on Japanese government bonds in fiscal 2034 are projected to be about 8.4 trillion yen higher than previously estimated, the Finance Ministry said Friday. Interest payments are expected to increase at an accelerating pace, as long-term interest rates are rising due to persistent concerns about fiscal deterioration stemming from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s “responsible and proactive” fiscal policy, as well as recent turmoil in the Middle East. The ministry’s latest estimate was unveiled at a meeting of a subcommittee of the Fiscal System Council, which advises the finance minister. The council is slated to begin full-fledged discussions on the government’s basic policy on economic and fiscal management and reform, to be compiled this summer, with plans to draw up a proposal. Hiroya Masuda, acting chairman of the subcommittee, told a press conference after the meeting that “it’s important to increase financial leeway as much as possible while carefully managing finances now.” The ministry’s annual estimate factors in market expectations for interest rate increases on top of projected interest rates adopted at the time of budget compilation, with rates assumed to remain unchanged after the third year. The latest estimate put the fiscal 2034 interest payment costs at 34.0 trillion yen, up from the previous estimate’s 25.6 trillion yen. The government raised the assumed interest rate to 3.0 pct in its fiscal 2026 budget compiled at the end of last year, up from 2.0 pct in the fiscal 2025 budget. Since Takaichi took office last October, long-term interest rates have been rising at a faster pace due to concerns about fiscal deterioration. As a result, the fiscal 2026 budget allocated 13.0 trillion yen for interest payments. The outstanding amount of JGBs is projected to hit 1,145 trillion yen at the end of fiscal 2026. With public finances increasingly vulnerable to higher interest rates, a senior ministry official expressed worry that adopting an optimistic outlook would result in a loss of market credibility. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]