(Adnkronos) – The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, now halfway through its second week, is proving to be very different from what its protagonists had imagined. This is according to a Wall Street Journal editorial by Yaroslav Trofimov, which states that the conflict now involves 12 countries and is causing economic and political shocks worldwide, with none of the parties having yet achieved their strategic objectives. “Both seem to have miscalculated how the adversary would react,” the article reads, foreshadowing a dynamic that risks transforming the conflict into a long war of attrition with no clear way out.
According to American sources, US President Donald Trump had hoped that the February 28 attack against the Iranian leadership – culminating in the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – would have caused the collapse of the regime or at least paved the way for collaboration with more pragmatic figures, similar to what happened in Venezuela with Delcy Rodriguez after the capture of Nicolas Maduro. But nothing of the sort happened: the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the predecessor and a representative of the most rigid and vengeful wing towards the United States, as the new Supreme Leader.
On the military and strategic front, moreover, Tehran has demonstrated that it retains significant offensive capabilities. Despite the bombings, Iran continues to launch ballistic missiles and drones against US bases, Israel, and key cities in Gulf countries, in addition to having blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. The objective, according to several observers, is to increase the political and economic costs of the war. “The Iranian focus is to make Trump understand how much this war is damaging the economy and how directly Americans at home will suffer the consequences,” explained Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations, emphasizing that “the longer the conflict drags on, the more Tehran believes it can impose these costs.”
A prolonged conflict would also have a clear indirect winner: Vladimir Putin’s Russia. High oil and gas prices would be a boon for the Kremlin, strengthening Putin’s international position, as evidenced by Trump’s initial overtures after their conversation yesterday. “It would be advantageous for the Kremlin if this conflict lasted several months, because it would lead to high oil prices in the short term,” observed economist Alexandra Prokopenko. Even in the event of a truce, many analysts predict prolonged instability. “Even if the guns fall silent,” warned Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, “we will face a very ugly equilibrium.”
