15 Years On, Japan Still Struggles with Disaster-Related Deaths

Tokyo, March 6 (Jiji Press)–As of the end of 2025, the cumulative number of deaths indirectly linked to the massive March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan had reached 3,810, with little sign that such losses will cease anytime soon. The disaster, which devastated wide areas primarily in northeastern Japan, and the subsequent nuclear accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc.’s Fukushima No. 1 plant forced many residents into long-term evacuation, subjecting them to severe psychological and physical strain. Institutional issues, including how disaster-related deaths are officially certified, have also come to light. As the 15th anniversary of the catastrophe approaches, the Japanese government’s declared goal of reducing these indirect deaths to zero still appears far from being achieved. Apart from deaths directly caused by natural disasters, such as those resulting from buildings collapsing in an earthquake, “disaster-related deaths” refer to fatalities that occur when injuries sustained during the disaster worsen, or when pre-existing medical conditions deteriorate due to the physical and mental strain of living in evacuation. According to the Cabinet Office, such indirect cases were first documented after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of January 1995, which severely struck the western port city of Kobe and its surrounding areas. Experts say local governments still lack an accurate picture of the true number of disaster-related deaths. Currently, “only cases in which bereaved families apply for and are granted disaster condolence money are counted” as disaster-related deaths, explained Fumiyasu Zaima, a lawyer with an association that studies disaster-related deaths. If no family member applies for the benefit, authorities do not investigate whether the death was connected to the disaster. “There are limits to the current method (of counting indirect deaths), which relies on the condolence money system,” Zaima said. Under the current framework, based on the law on payment of disaster condolence grants, local governments accept applications from bereaved families and certify cases in which a causal relationship with the disaster is recognized. Only those cases that pass this screening are recorded as disaster-related deaths. Once approved, a payment of 5 million yen is provided if the deceased was the primary breadwinner, and 2.5 million yen if not. Zaima, who previously served on a review committee in an area affected by the March 2011 disaster, also points to the complexity of the condolence money application process as a major problem. In addition to providing detailed accounts of the damage, victims’ families must assemble a large amount of documentation. This includes medical certificates that trace the progression of the deceased’s condition, creating a significant burden for applicants, the lawyer said. The central government has not established unified criteria for certifying disaster-related deaths. A Cabinet Office official explained that fixed standards could “impede flexible judgment on the front lines.” Instead, to support decision-making, the government has released examples of past examination cases and court rulings from previous disasters, with the consent of bereaved families and others involved. In January this year, it also made public sample cases from the powerful earthquake that afflicted the Noto Peninsula two years earlier. In the government’s damage estimate for a potential megaquake originating in the Nankai Trough, off the Pacific coast of central to western Japan, disaster-related deaths are projected to reach up to about 52,000. Preventing these deaths will require not only improving conditions at evacuation shelters, but also providing careful, sustained support to disaster victims who remain in their homes or elsewhere. To bolster local governments’ efforts, the central government is moving quickly to establish stronger institutional frameworks and to train specialized personnel. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]