2026 POLLS: Rice Gaffe Haunts Ex-Farm Minister Eto on Campaign Trail

Hyuga, Miyazaki Pref., Feb. 5 (Jiji Press)–Former Japanese agriculture minister Taku Eto is facing an uphill battle to retain his House of Representatives seat in Sunday’s general election after resigning from the cabinet last year over insensitive remarks about rice amid a spike in prices for the staple grain. “It truly was something I should never have said. I am deeply sorry,” Eto told an audience of about 100 people involved in agriculture at a campaign rally in Hyuga, Miyazaki Prefecture, southwestern Japan, on Saturday, bowing low in apology. Eto was effectively dismissed from his ministerial post in May last year after drawing criticism for saying, “I have never bought rice.” At a time when consumers were struggling with soaring rice prices, he explained that he received so much of the staple from his supporters that he could even sell it. Precarious Position Eto, 65, commands a traditionally conservative electoral base in Miyazaki’s No. 2 constituency, inherited from his late father, Takami, a former construction minister who also held other key posts. Since first winning a seat in the Lower House in 2003, Eto has gone on to secure eight consecutive election victories. He even survived the 2005 election, despite losing the party’s official endorsement because he opposed then Prime Minister and LDP President Junichiro Koizumi’s flagship policy of postal privatization. In the upcoming election, however, cracks are beginning to show in what was once considered an impregnable stronghold. Numerous media polls indicate that Shinji Nagatomo, a 48-year-old candidate from the opposition Democratic Party for the People, has pulled ahead. In the previous two elections, Eto defeated Nagatomo in their single-seat constituency, but Nagatomo still secured a seat through the proportional representation system. The gap in their vote totals narrowed significantly, from about 37,000 in the 2021 election to roughly 13,000 in the 2024 poll. His gaffe, combined with shifts in the LDP-led governing coalition, is now an additional hurdle to overcome. Komeito Stays Silent The coming Lower House election will be the first since Komeito pulled out of its ruling coalition with the LDP. In Miyazaki’s No. 2 constituency, votes from Komeito supporters are put at around 15,000, according to an official at the LDP’s prefectural chapter, and are widely expected to play a decisive role in the race. After its split from the LDP, Komeito joined forces with the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to form the Centrist Reform Alliance, a new party including most of their Lower House members. The new party has decided not to field a candidate in Miyazaki’s No. 2 constituency, leaving its voters effectively up for grabs. Despite its potential influence, Komeito’s prefectural chapter has remained tight-lipped about the contest. “We have decided not to take a position on this race,” one chapter official said. The long-standing cooperative relationship between Eto and Komeito has collapsed. For years, the two sides “lent and borrowed” votes between the single-seat constituency and the proportional representation system, carefully coordinating support to ensure they could coexist in harmony. “We can’t say, ‘Please cast your proportional representation ballot for the Centrist Reform Alliance.’ Things aren’t like they used to be,” a member of Eto’s campaign staff said in a subdued tone. Voting Discretion Eto has continued his apology tour, holding a series of speeches across his home district. His campaign posters have been updated to feature a photograph of him with Prime Minister and LDP President Sanae Takaichi, highlighting his close ties to the center of the administration. “I’m known as a politician who understands the front lines best,” he emphasized. Drawing on his long experience in agricultural policy, he is working to win back wavering support in the farming community. The Miyazaki prefectural farmers’ federation, the largest agricultural political organization in the prefecture and a key supporter of Eto, has decided to back the LDP in the proportional representation race. Even so, some branches in the No. 2 constituency asked for permission to allow members to vote at their own discretion in the proportional representation segment, and the federation effectively granted the request. In past elections, the federation has also allowed members to vote freely in the proportional representation bloc, rather than requiring them to back the LDP. This approach was intended to secure Komeito’s support in the constituency race. The latest decision is likewise seen as a move to keep the door open for cooperation with Komeito. “We hope the number of Komeito votes (for Eto) doesn’t fall to zero,” a federation official said. DPFP’s Courtship Nagatomo, the DPFP candidate, is gunning for his first victory in the constituency race. His core support comes from labor unions, primarily in Nobeoka, the birthplace of major chemical manufacturer Asahi Kasei Corp. He has held weekend briefings on national politics almost every week, steadily building close ties with the local community. While he has consolidated his traditional support base, he is also making inroads among LDP supporters. Local assembly members in Nagatomo’s camp have reached out to individuals connected with Komeito to informally seek their backing. According to sources, they did not receive definitive responses, but were instead told, “In the constituency election, we’ll base our decision on individual merit.” Even so, Nagatomo’s camp believes that Komeito-affiliated figures are simply reluctant to state their position openly, and its impression is that these supporters are quietly leaning toward Nagatomo. A representative from the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, or Rengo, a key supporter of the DPFP, predicted, “Probably about half of Komeito’s votes will go to Nagatomo.” The DPFP candidate himself made a direct appeal to voters in the town of Kadogawa, Eto’s hometown, on Saturday. “If I don’t win in the constituency, the number of (Lower House seats for) my fellow party members won’t increase. This is not the time for me to rely on a proportional representation slot,” he said before climbing into his campaign vehicle. On the same day, Eto was also making the rounds of Kadogawa in his own campaign vehicle, and chants for the two candidates overlapped in residential neighborhoods. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]