2026 POLLS: Conservative Division Deepens in Fukui

Fukui, Feb. 5 (Jiji Press)–The conservative grip is slipping in Fukui Prefecture ahead of Sunday’s House of Representatives election, following the recent gubernatorial election that left major fractures within Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The No. 1 constituency in the snowbound central Japan prefecture sees high-profile seven-term lawmaker Tomomi Inada, 66, holding the upper hand in the campaign for the election for the all-important lower chamber of the Diet, the country’s parliament. In the No. 2 constituency, in contrast, the LDP was unable to field a candidate, reflecting lingering friction between the party’s prefectural chapter and the party headquarters. In the 2009 Lower House election, in which the LDP was ousted from power, the party nevertheless won all of the former No. 1 constituency to the No. 3 constituency in Fukui, highlighting a strong conservative base. However, in the previous Lower House election in 2024, Tsuyoshi Takagi, who was not endorsed by the LDP due to his involvement in the party’s high-profile slush fund scandal, lost his seat in the No. 2 constituency to the candidate of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. In the gubernatorial election held on Jan. 25, a candidate backed by Inada and Fukui prefectural assembly members lost to a rival recommended by the head of the LDP’s Fukui prefectural chapter and municipal assembly members, exacerbating centrifugal forces within conservative ranks. Criticism of Ideological Shift Inada has been unable to stem the defection of conservative voters, largely because of her support for a law designed to promote understanding of LGBT and other sexual minorities. Her backing of the law has been viewed as an ideological turnabout, given her longtime conservative slogan of “tradition and creation,” and has prompted sustained opposition within the LDP’s base. “Rather than using harsh rhetoric to divide the nation, calm conservatism is the true conservatism the LDP aims for,” Inada said at a rally in the city of Sakai on Sunday. Inada is regarded as a protege of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and has held key posts, such as defense minister. In an attempt to keep conservative supporters on board, she has held rallies day after day, shaking hands with participants and displaying posters of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi alongside her own posters. Kazuki Fujimoto, a 29-year-old candidate fielded by Sanseito, aims to capture conservative votes. Seen as a potential ace of the party, Fujimoto drew Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya, a Fukui native, to the press conference announcing his candidacy. In a speech in the prefectural capital of Fukui on Saturday, Fujimoto said, “I will protect Japan from the encroachment of globalism.” Contrasting his stance with that of Inada, one audience member expressed dissatisfaction toward her, saying, “I had voted for Inada, but I couldn’t forgive her support for LGBT.” Another attendee likened her to the Japanese Communist Party. Takato Ishida, a 35-year-old former official at the Foreign Ministry who won the Jan. 25 gubernatorial election, received support from Masaaki Yamazaki, former president of the House of Councillors, the upper chamber of the Diet, who heads the LDP’s Fukui prefectural chapter. Sanseito also gave him a boost toward the end of the gubernatorial election campaign. Ishida’s rival candidate, Kenichi Yamada, backed by Inada, suffered a narrow defeat. Two days later, when the official campaign period began for the Lower House election, Yamazaki did not attend the opening ceremony for Inada’s campaign kickoff event. At a rally in the city of Fukui on Monday, Inada switched her approach, saying, “We will work closely with the fresh young governor,” in an effort to mend the conservative split. Candidates from the Centrist Reform Alliance, a new party formed by the CDP and Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner, and from the Democratic Party for the People will also compete in the No. 1 constituency. Tsubasa Hatano, 41, who won his Lower House seat under the proportional representation system in the previous election, runs in Sunday’s election on the ticket of the Centrist Reform Alliance to challenge Inada again. During a speech in front of a supermarket in the city of Sakai on Jan. 29, Hatano drew a steady stream of responses, including from people waving from passing cars during the evening rush hour. The DPFP fielded Shunsuke Yamanaka, 42, who was last year’s Upper House runner-up. This decision derailed talks to unify candidates with the Centrist Reform Alliance, possibly allowing the LDP to benefit from a split in votes organized by the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, or Rengo, a key supporter of the CDP. Boycott Staged In the No. 2 constituency, the race has become a one-on-one contest between independent candidate Takeshi Saiki, 51, and Hideyuki Tsuji, 55, who is fielded by the Centrist Reform Alliance. Saiki was expelled from the Japan Innovation Party, the new coalition partner of the LDP. He joined an LDP parliamentary group shortly after the launch of the Takaichi administration. While the LDP headquarters decided to back Saiki, the party prefectural chapter explored supporting Ken Yamamoto, the eldest son of Takaichi’s husband. This idea was abandoned after a senior party official warned it could be regarded as an act of rebellion against the party, but resentment within the prefectural chapter remains intense. Withholding all cooperation with Saiki’s campaign, local lawmakers have staged a boycott, with one prefectural assembly member ignoring phone calls from him. Saiki has belonged to a succession of parties, including the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan, the now-defunct Party of Hope, the former Democratic Party for the People, the CDP and the JIP, fueling deep-rooted distrust within the LDP’s prefectural chapter. His campaign is counting on the LDP’s party brand. Aides have said they hope senior party officials will press the prefectural chapter to fall into line. Wearing sashes and distributing flyers reading “LDP support,” his campaign team continues visiting businesses. Even so, Saiki did not manage to hold his first rally until Tuesday night, a week after the official campaign began. LDP election strategy chief Keiji Furuya, who orchestrated Saiki’s entry into the LDP parliamentary group, traveled to the city of Tsuruga to lend him support. “I will take responsibility for raising him as an LDP politician,” Furuya pledged, citing the example of Takaichi’s initial election victory as an independent. The rally, however, attracted only about 30 people, roughly 30 pct of the venue’s capacity. Tsuji, who defeated Saiki by about 15,000 votes in the previous election, stepped up his criticism of the rival at a gathering in the city of Sabae on Saturday, saying Saiki was “extremely dishonest to voters for repeatedly switching parties.” END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]