2026 POLLS: Japan Ruling LDP, Ally JIP Face Off in Osaka

Osaka, Feb. 3 (Jiji Press)–Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its ally, the Japan Innovation Party, are competing against each other in all 19 single-seat constituencies of Osaka Prefecture in Sunday’s general election, the first to be held since the two formed their coalition last October. In the Osaka No. 5 district, which covers the northwestern part of the city of Osaka, the capital of the prefecture, the choices by the roughly 66,000 people who voted for a candidate from the LDP’s erstwhile coalition partner, Komeito, in the previous October 2024 poll for the House of Representatives, Japan’s all-important lower parliamentary chamber, may determine the outcome this time. Osaka gubernatorial and mayoral polls are also scheduled to take place Sunday. The western Japanese prefecture is a stronghold of the JIP, which has its headquarters in the prefectural capital. Double Election Casting a Pall on JIP “We support the LDP but we may reject it,” Satoshi Umemura, 50, the JIP’s candidate in the constituency for Sunday’s election, said in a speech in the city of Osaka on Jan. 27, the first day of the official campaign period for the poll. “Anyway, the JIP presses the gas pedal for the people,” said Umemura, who held the No. 5 constituency seat until the Lower House was dissolved Jan. 23 for the forthcoming election. He is a native of Osaka Prefecture. Umemura, the JIP’s tax policy chief, promoted the party’s pledges of lowering the consumption tax on food to zero and reducing social security premiums, and touted the ruling bloc’s ability to realize policies. In the October 2024 general election, the JIP won all Osaka Prefecture constituencies. But the party is facing headwinds this time, after JIP members in some regional assemblies were found to have fraudulently reduced their public health insurance premium payments. The party, which had promoted the 2025 World Exposition in Osaka, is also under fire over unpaid construction costs for some overseas pavilions for the event. In addition, JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura’s decision to step down as Osaka governor and hold a double election for the posts of Osaka governor and mayor on the same day as the general election is creating backlash among voters. Yoshimura sets the JIP’s so-called Osaka metropolis plan for local administrative realignment as a major issue in the two regional races, although the initiative was rejected twice in past local referendums. Umemura is not actively mentioning the local realignment project in his campaign speeches. A woman who refused to accept a campaign leaflet from Umemura’s camp while the candidate was delivering a speech showed no interest in the metropolis plan. “It’s already finished.” Takaichi Faction Former LDP lawmaker Mio Sugita, 58, who is running in the Osaka No. 5 constituency on an LDP ticket, touts her closeness to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, head of the party, in her campaign speeches, saying, “I’m in the Takaichi faction” and “Don’t stop the advance of the Takaichi LDP.” Sugita backed Takaichi when the latter ran in the LDP’s leadership election in 2024, and the two share conservative political beliefs. Sugita said she came up with the phrase “Takaichi faction” herself, and has included it in her campaign car design, posters and leaflets. But few voters stop to listen to Sugita’s speeches. The constituency is traditionally a stronghold of Komeito, which ended its 26-year partnership with the LDP right before Takaichi became prime minister last October. It is the first time since 1996 that the LDP has endorsed a candidate in the constituency. There are only two Osaka city assembly members of the LDP elected from the district, and no LDP members from the constituency in the Osaka prefectural assembly. As a result, Sugita’s election camp lacks staff members who are familiar with local issues. An LDP official who was assigned to the Sugita camp from outside the prefecture right before the start of the official campaign period for Sunday’s general election expressed surprise over the lack of an organized regime, saying, “Is this really LDP election campaigning?” Sugita was born in Kobe in neighboring Hyogo Prefecture and does not have ties to the area around the Osaka No. 5 constituency. A senior campaign official said that the candidate lacks name recognition despite attracting public criticism in the past over her discriminatory remarks, saying, “We had hopes that it is better to be infamous than unknown.” Casting Blank Votes The new opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, established by Komeito and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, gave up fielding a candidate in the constituency as it could not make preparations in time. Toru Kunishige, 51, who ran in the district as a Komeito candidate in the previous general election and finished second, is vying for a proportional representation seat from the new centrist party in the ongoing race. Komeito supporters are seen freely casting their votes in the constituency. The JIP does not expect Komeito supporters to vote for its candidate as the two sides fought each other in the constituency in the last Lower House election. Meanwhile, Sugita is seeking to woo Komeito voters by advocating child-rearing support and welfare policies, which are key themes for the party. However, a source predicted that “many Komeito supporters will cast blank votes for the constituency seat and vote for the Centrist Reform Alliance for the proportional representation bloc.” Both the Umemura and Sugita camps are confused as they have to fight each other as the JIP and LDP candidates despite the fact that the two parties are now coalition partners and aim to gain a combined Lower House majority in Sunday’s general election. “We are finding it difficult to distinguish ourselves from” the Umemura side, a senior Sugita camp official said, while a JIP executive said the two parties should consider avoiding putting up candidates in the same districts in future elections. Reiwa Shinsengumi co-leader Akiko Oishi, 48, is running in the constituency again, after she finished third but secured a proportional representation seat in the 2024 election. In her first speech of the campaign period on Tuesday, Oishi strongly criticized Takaichi, saying, “We need to knock out the prime minister.” Reiwa Shinsengumi may face difficulties at the polls following party leader Taro Yamamoto’s resignation as a lawmaker of the House of Councillors, the upper parliamentary chamber, due to health problems. While Oishi is seeking to promote herself and the party, including by appearing in televised debates and other events in lieu of Yamamoto, an Oishi campaign official remarked, “It is a testing time for our party,”. Also running in the Osaka No. 5 constituency are Hidemichi Maeda, 51, of the Democratic Party for the People, Keiko Matsuyama, 52, of Sanseito and Ryusuke Minato, 42, of the Japanese Communist Party. None of them have served as lawmakers. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]