2026 POLLS: Komeito’s Exit from Coalition Puts LDP in Tough Spot in Yamaguchi

Tokyo, Feb. 1 (Jiji Press)–The Liberal Democratic Party is expected to face an uphill battle in the No. 2 constituency in Yamaguchi Prefecture, western Japan, in the upcoming general election as the governing party can no longer count on votes from supporters of Komeito, which has dissolved its coalition with the LDP, even though the electoral district is traditionally its stronghold. In the Feb. 8 election for the all-important lower chamber of the Diet, Japan’s parliament, 28 of the 289 single-seat constituencies will virtually see a one-on-one contest between candidates from the LDP and the new major opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, formed recently by Komeito, which ended its partnership with the LDP last October, and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. In the Yamaguchi No. 2 constituency, one of the 28 districts, LDP’s Nobuchiyo Kishi, 34, a nephew of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is going up against Centrist Reform Alliance’s Hideo Hiraoka, 72, who is aiming to clinch his seventh term as a Lower House lawmaker. In the previous October 2024 Lower House general election, Kishi narrowly won the constituency’s seat, beating Hiraoka by a margin of 1,724 votes. Hiraoka secured a proportional representation seat in the poll. Politics and Money Pointing to high public approval ratings for the administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, also LDP president, Hiraoka said at a gathering held at his campaign office in the Yamaguchi city of Iwakuni on Tuesday, “In order to better compete (with the Takaichi-led LDP), people advocating centrist policies need to fight by forming a large group.” Akira Hirabayashi, who is a Centrist Reform Alliance member originally from Komeito and running in the upcoming election under the proportional representation system, also attended the gathering. “This general election is important in terms of properly resolving the issue of politics and money,” Hiraoka, originally from the CDP, said in an apparent reference to the LDP’s high-profile “slush funds” scandal, while emphasizing “clean politics,” the mantra long upheld by Komeito. On Monday, Hiraoka visited Komeito’s Yamaguchi prefectural chapter, receiving support from senior officials of the branch. A poster with a message praying for Hiraoka’s election victory and the names of Komeito leader Toshiko Takeya and Secretary-General Makoto Nishida was put up at his campaign office. In past elections, Komeito has carried out campaign activities leveraging its vote-gathering machine, lay Buddhist group Soka Gakkai. Komeito is believed to have 10,000-20,000 supporter votes in each constituency. “A significant number of Komeito supporters will likely vote for Hiraoka this time,” a local Komeito official said. Hiraoka, who lost to Kishi in the 2023 Lower House by-election and the 2024 general election, said, “I would feel reassured if I receive backing (from Komeito supporters).” Nuclear Energy as Election Focus A focal point of the Feb. 8 election is energy policy, with a plan underway to build a facility in the Yamaguchi town of Kaminoseki, which faces the Seto Inland Sea, for interim storage of spent fuel from nuclear power plants. While Hiraoka called for reducing Japan’s dependence on nuclear energy to zero when he was a member of the CDP, the Centrist Reform Alliance allows the restart of idled nuclear power reactors in its basic policies. Hiraoka said that he and the new party “share the general vision” of aiming to create a society that does not rely on nuclear power generation, adding that he will continue opposing the planned interim storage facility. “He probably brought this up to reaffirm that his position has not changed, in hopes to retain his existing supporters,” a Komeito official said. Counting on Takaichi’s Popularity With the Yamaguchi No. 2 constituency likely to be a close race yet again, Kishi is hoping to capitalize on Takaichi’s high popularity to help him secure his third term as a Lower House lawmaker. Kishi took over the political base from his father, former Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, a younger brother of Abe, in the 2023 by-election, successfully clinching his first Lower House seat at the age of 31. Receiving backing from Komeito, the younger Kishi defended his seat in a close battle in the 2024 general election. “In the 2024 race, we frantically supported him,” a Komeito official recalled. In his campaign for the upcoming election, Kishi told voters, “I sincerely ask you to send me to the national political arena once again with your power in this winter election.” Echoing Takaichi’s slogan of making the country strong and prosperous, Kishi vowed to “make Japan strong and prosperous, starting with Yamaguchi.” The choice of the words was apparently intended to give an impression that Kishi is close to Takaichi, who regards herself as Abe’s successor. “We really hope that the prime minister will come here to support (Kishi),” an executive of his camp said. Abe’s widow, Akie, said at a gathering Wednesday, “I’d like to support Nobuchiyo, whom my husband cared for.” Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who is close to Takaichi, is also slated to visit the constituency Monday to offer her support for Kishi. Possible effects from the Yamaguchi gubernatorial election scheduled also for Feb. 8 are a focal issue as well. In the election to pick the prefecture’s leader, the incumbent governor, who is mainly backed by the LDP, is vying with a former Yamaguchi prefectural assembly member, who belonged to an LDP-backed group and is a niece of the previous governor. “I’m concerned that the gubernatorial election, in which conservatives are split, could have a major impact (on the Lower House election),” an official of the Kishi camp said. “If the camp of the incumbent fails to unite, we may be in danger,” the official added. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]