FOCUS: Japan’s Takaichi Seeks Political Stability thru Election

Tokyo, Jan. 20 (Jiji Press)–Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s announcement of an abrupt House of Representatives dissolution for a snap election reflects her hopes of consolidating political power to achieve her own policies. In the Feb. 8 election for the lower chamber of the Diet, Japan’s parliament, Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will be up against a new party launched by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and now-opposition Komeito, a former member of the LDP-led ruling coalition. “Why now? To ask the people to decide whether Sanae Takaichi should remain prime minister. I thought that was the only choice,” Takaichi said on Monday at a press conference, where she announced that she will dissolve the Lower House at the start of this year’s ordinary Diet session on Friday for a snap election. If realized, it would be the first time in about 60 years for a Lower House dissolution to happen at the beginning of an ordinary Diet session. Instead of the familiar blue backdrop often used for a press conference by a prime minister, Takaichi opted to go with a dark red background for Monday’s press conference. This was reminiscent of a similar setting adopted by then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi when he announced a Lower House dissolution in 2005. Takaichi’s background choice reflected her earnest wishes, said an official at the prime minister’s office. In the post-World War II period, the only time when the Lower House was dissolved at the start of an ordinary parliamentary session was in 1966. Most administrations saw dissolving the all-important chamber before budget deliberations as effectively forbidden. Despite that, Takaichi decided that it would be best to announce a dissolution while public support for her cabinet remains high and increase the number of Lower House seats held by the LDP and its current coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party. The LDP-JIP pair currently commands a slim majority, holding 233 of the 465 seats. She is also believed to have weighed the option of dissolving the Lower House in January, which was unexpected for many people, as she may get the jump on opposition parties not fully prepared to fight in a general election. “The prime minister solely focused on the best timing to dissolve (the lower chamber) to regain a single-party majority,” an aide said. Still, it is unclear whether Takaichi could gain the public’s understanding of her decision. The dissolution would make it difficult for the government’s fiscal 2026 draft budget to be enacted by the end of the current fiscal year in March. Opposition parties have blasted her decision. CDP Secretary-General Jun Azumi said, “This will be a meaningless dissolution that sacrifices the people’s livelihoods.” Some LDP candidates in touch with voters on a daily basis have voiced bewilderment, with one saying that the dissolution “hasn’t been exactly well-received.” Takaichi’s biggest miscalculation was that her snap election decision, reported earlier this month, has driven the CDP and Komeito to strengthen ties. Komeito ended the 26-year alliance with the LDP last October, when the Takaichi administration was launched. But there were hopes within the LDP that the two sides would continue to work together in individual constituencies, given their long history of electoral cooperation, according to a young LDP member. The CDP and Komeito, however, announced a plan to form a new party, named the Centrist Reform Alliance, shortly after Takaichi conveyed her intention to dissolve the Lower House to the LDP last week. This means that there will be no election-related cooperation from Komeito, at least officially. Komeito has garnered about 10,000 to 20,000 votes in a single constituency. There will likely be many constituencies where a CDP candidate has a good chance of winning if only 10,000 votes shift to the candidate and away from the LDP candidate. “The situation will likely change,” a medium-ranking CDP member said. During Monday’s press conference, Takaichi said, “I can’t help but question why our former ally is helping the CDP, which it had competed against in a House of Councillors election just six months ago.” Together with its new ally, the JIP, the LDP is expected to face a Lower House election that would be totally different from those fought together with Komeito. As the current LDP-JIP alliance does not include electoral cooperation, the two parties will compete in over 70 constituencies. The JIP has said that it will back LDP candidates in constituencies without JIP candidates. Meanwhile, JIP leader and Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura and Osaka Mayor Hideyuki Yokoyama, also a JIP executive, last week submitted their resignations to hold gubernatorial and mayoral elections to coincide with the Lower House poll. The double local election would likely disperse the JIP’s focus, given that the party is expected to put considerable emphasis on its campaign activities in Osaka Prefecture. The Democratic Party for the People, another opposition party, is pursuing its own path. At the end of last year, DPFP chief Yuichiro Tamaki and Takaichi reached an agreement that their parties will cooperate to pass the fiscal 2026 budget before the current fiscal year ends on March 31. He has blasted the dissolution decision, which jeopardizes the enactment of the budget within fiscal 2025, saying that the move will “go against” their agreement. Tamaki, however, did not respond to calls for the DPFP to join the Centrist Reform Alliance. He aims to increase his party’s influence in the Lower House on its own. When asked about her goal for the upcoming general election, Takaichi told the press conference that she aims to secure “a majority by the ruling camp,” no better than the current situation. “If we do not see a boost in the number of (Lower House) seats, it’ll be the prime minister’s responsibility, as she decided on the dissolution on her own volition,” said a member of an LDP faction led by Vice President Taro Aso. “Pressure for her to step down will likely increase if our party cannot secure a majority on its own,” another LDP member said. There is still a possibility that the LDP-led coalition will be ousted from power if it loses its Lower House majority. After the general election, a parliamentary vote will be held to pick the prime minister in an extraordinary Diet session. On Monday, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, who is expected to become co-leader of the Centrist Reform Alliance, said, “I hope to create a centrist movement wave.” END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]