Will Takaichi Gamble on Snap Election for Stable Govt in 2026?

Tokyo, Jan. 3 (Jiji Press)–The main focus of Japanese politics in 2026 will be whether Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will dissolve the House of Representatives, the all-important lower chamber of the Diet, for a general election to stabilize her administration. The Liberal Democratic Party-led ruling bloc only barely secured a majority in the Lower House late last year by including independent lawmakers. Meanwhile, the ruling bloc lost its majority in the House of Councillors, the upper chamber, in the triennial election in July. There appear to be two option for Takaichi to strengthen her administration’s footing in 2026: winning more seats in a Lower House election and expanding the ruling coalition, which currently comprises the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party. Many in the LDP believe that, if Takaichi decides to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election, she would do so on June 21 after key bills are enacted during the upcoming ordinary Diet session. Still, an LDP source said that the prime minister could dissolve the Lower House at any time after the passage of the government’s fiscal 2026 budget bill, which is expected in late March. Calls from within the LDP to hold a snap election will certainly grow if the Takaichi administration sails through the opposition camp’s offensive during Diet deliberations on the budget bill while maintaining high public approval ratings. Takaichi’s decision on the next Lower House election is also expected to be linked to her strategy to win another term as president of the LDP. Her current term will expire in September 2027. Even if the ruling bloc wins a possible Lower House election, it will still fall short of a majority in the Upper House unless other parties join it. The Democratic Party for the People is viewed as a potential new coalition partner. With the DPFP, the ruling bloc would secure a majority in the Upper House. In December, the LDP accepted the DPFP’s proposal to raise the taxable income threshold. DPFP chief Yuichiro Tamaki then indicated that his party would support the fiscal 2026 budget bill. But at the same time, Tamaki expressed caution about joining the ruling bloc, saying that the DPFP will deal with the Takaichi administration on a policy-by-policy basis. Meanwhile, the issue of reducing the number of Lower House seats is a potential flashpoint within the administration. When joining the ruling bloc, the JIP put forward a cut in Lower House seats as an “absolute condition.” The ruling bloc submitted a seat reduction bill during an extraordinary Diet session late last year, but was unable to begin deliberations on the bill due to a lack of understanding from the opposition camp. During the upcoming ordinary session, three bills related to rules on political donations from companies and organizations are expected to be prioritized over the seat reduction bill. If the seat reduction bill fails, the LDP could face increased frustration from the JIP, although JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, the governor of Osaka Prefecture, has expressed his reluctance to leave the ruling bloc. In the opposition camp, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is seeking to strengthen its cooperation with Komeito, the LDP’s previous coalition partner, under the centrist banner. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito is stepping up his criticism of the Takaichi administration, but some party members are hesitant to take a completely confrontational stance against the administration. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]