EXCLUSIVE: Service Shortages to Dent Japan FY ’40 GDP by 76 T. Yen

Tokyo, Nov. 16 (Jiji Press)–Japan’s real gross domestic product in fiscal 2040 may turn out 76 trillion yen lower than estimated if the supplies of essential services remain inadequate in depopulated areas, Jiji Press learned Sunday. The bleak projection, compiled by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, will be presented Tuesday at a meeting of an experts’ panel at the Industrial Structure Council, which advises the economy minister. If essential services, such as medical and elderly care and retailing, withdraw, local living conditions worsen, possibly accelerating population outflows. Such developments could negatively affect local supply chains. The panel will consider measures to encourage nonprofit organizations led by local residents to be providers of such services, especially in depopulated areas. In April this year, the ministry compiled a scenario in which the country’s real GDP in fiscal 2040 could reach about 750 trillion yen, 1.4 times the fiscal 2021 level, if annual domestic private investment, currently around 100 trillion yen, is raised to a government target of 200 trillion yen. The newly devised bleak projection takes into account the negative impact expected to arise if measures to maintain essential services are not taken. The direct impact of the withdrawal of essential service businesses is put at 16 trillion yen, while the indirect impact on other industries, such as manufacturing, is estimated at up to 60 trillion yen. The combined amount, up to 76 trillion yen, would represent 10 pct of the real GDP estimated for fiscal 2040. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]