(Adnkronos) – On Sunday, October 26, Argentina returns to the polls to renew half of the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate, in a vote that will decide not only Javier Milei’s political future but also the effectiveness of his alliance with US President Donald Trump. The United States has, in fact, launched an unprecedented financial lifeline of 20 billion dollars to support the Argentine peso, linking the continuation of aid to the outcome of the elections. “If a socialist wins, there will be no more aid,” Trump declared, adding more fuel to the fire ahead of the parliamentary vote.
Almost two years after his arrival at the Casa Rosada, the libertarian president faces the toughest challenge of his mandate. The defeat suffered on September 7 in the province of Buenos Aires, where the Peronists of “Fuerza Patria” beat his party “La Libertad Avanza” (Lla) 47% to 34% – has caused Milei’s leadership to lose certainty. Scandals related to the collapse of the cryptocurrency proposed by the president, accusations of corruption against his sister Karina, and the case of José Luis Espert, former Lla top candidate involved in a money laundering investigation, have eroded his promise to “moralize the caste.”
Yet, on the economic front, results are not lacking. According to The Economist, inflation, which exceeded 200% at the beginning of 2023, has now fallen to 32%; poverty has decreased from 50% to 32%, and the projected growth for this year – about 4.5% – is the highest in Latin America. But consensus does not follow statistics: according to polls, the majority of Argentinians now prioritize unemployment and corruption, while Milei’s image remains tarnished by social discontent. “What do we do with falling prices if we don’t have a job?” a Peronist voter told The Economist.
For the president, the minimum goal is to obtain a “blocking third” in Parliament – enough to prevent his laws and vetoes from being overturned by the Peronist majority. But if his party were to fall below 30%, analysts predict market turbulence and a possible withdrawal of US support. For this reason, Milei has also intensified contacts with former president Mauricio Macri, leader of the conservative Pro party, in an attempt to build alliances for a new political phase.
The eyes of the world, and particularly Washington, are on Buenos Aires. For Trump, Milei is the symbol of a “libertarian” right that speaks the language of the markets, a stronghold against Latin American “socialism.” Sunday’s outcome will tell if the gamble of the Argentine president – and his powerful American ally – can still hold.
