(Adnkronos) – Neither a clear heir nor a roadmap to indicate one. How long will Xi Jinping remain in power in China? The New York Times asks this on the day the fourth Plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party opened in Beijing. A crucial political meeting for the Asian giant where hypotheses about Xi’s future fall under the scrutiny of censorship and where only a very restricted number of officials could know the ‘secret’. And it is also for this reason that the spotlight turns to Beijing, because the event – should ‘promotions’ be announced, which many analysts expect instead for 2027 – could be an open window on the next generation of leaders.
Xi, 72, has been in power since 2012 and has accumulated power unseen since the time of Mao Zedong. He has given no signs of wanting to step down. And, the Nyt observes, his longevity in power, if mismanaged, could sow the seeds of political turmoil. The newspaper speaks of Xi’s dilemma: appointing a successor risks creating a rival power center and weakening his grip, while failing to choose the person to pass the ‘scepter’ to risks jeopardizing his legacy and creating divisions.
In the Party’s Politburo Standing Committee there are his loyalists, in their 60s or over 60, probably too old – experts observe – for there to be an ‘heir’ among them.
“Xi is certainly aware of the importance of succession, but he also realizes that it is incredibly difficult to name a successor without compromising his own power,” observes Neil Thomas of the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Xi knows that succession is an important dossier he must reflect on,” echoes Christopher K. Johnson, head of China Strategies Group. And, says Wang Hsin-hsein, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, the Chinese leader “is very wary of others, especially officials with whom he has only indirect relationships,” and the more time passes, “the less he will have ties with the generation of possible successors,” and “this factor will become more important.” The fear is power struggles along the path of choice.
For now, the Nyt concludes, Xi seems convinced that China’s rise depends on his continued administration, and with another term, or even more, ahead of him, his ‘heir’ could have been born in the 1970s, now working in a central administration or a central government agency. Without limits, meanwhile, Xi can remain at the helm of the Party, the State, and the military forever.
