Takaichi’s Victory Expected to “Hasten Decline” of LDP: Expert

Tokyo, Oct. 6 (Jiji Press)–The victory of Sanae Takaichi in the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election is expected to “hasten the decline” of the party that has governed Japan for most of the postwar period, Columbia University professor emeritus Gerald Curtis said Monday. “Takaichi’s victory is going to hasten the decline and the eventual collapse of the LDP,” the expert on Japan told a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan, or FCCJ. “It’s not if, but just when. It could happen fairly soon.” The LDP’s decline is in line with current political change in which mainstream parties, both ruling and opposition, are losing public support in democracies across the world, while extremist parties like Sanseito in Japan are gaining ground, he said. “In 1991, the LDP had 5.4 million members. Today, it has 900,000,” while Japan’s population is almost the same, Curtis said. He added that behind the decrease in the LDP’s membership is that “they have no message to the Japanese people that anybody finds really very interesting or very important.” On reasons for his bleak projection for the LDP’s future, Curtis said that Takaichi is in “real danger of quickly making enemies of both the MOF (Ministry of Finance) and of the BOJ (Bank of Japan),” as she advocates significant fiscal expansion. At a press conference Saturday just after the LDP leadership race, Takaichi said: “Don’t forget. It’s the government that’s responsible not only for fiscal policy but for monetary policy as well.” Curtis said that her remark “almost declared war” on the BOJ, as she did not mention the word “independence” at all when talking about the central bank. He also said that the MOF is expected to resist Takaichi’s ideas. Furthermore, Takaichi, who is expected to become the next prime minister, has a big problem as nothing can get through parliament without the support of one or more opposition parties, with the LDP-Komeito ruling camp short of majority in both chambers, the professor said. If Takaichi tries to form a coalition with opposition parties, such as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan or Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), they would demand a lot, Curtis predicted. It would be much better for opposition parties to remain outside the government and call on the LDP to realize what the parties want, he added. Therefore, Curtis forecasts that there will be no coalition government including an opposition force for a while and that negotiations will drag on between the ruling and opposition sides. Regarding Japan-China relations, Curtis hopes that Takaichi will take “a more balanced position,” as she is known for her regular visits to war-related Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo and her pro-Taiwan attitude. Curtis said she is unlikely to visit Yasukuni Shrine unless she is really looking for trouble with China and South Korea or recognize Taiwan as an independent country unless U.S. President Donald Trump does this. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]