(Adnkronos) – US and other Western intelligence agencies have not yet confirmed whether the drone incursion into Poland on the night between Tuesday and Wednesday last week was deliberate or whether it was just an accident, CNN writes, citing sources according to whom there is no consensus within NATO on the nature of the incident.
“This uncertainty does not mean that the incident is not dangerous. Certainly something has changed in the Kremlin’s risk tolerance when targets are chosen,” commented a Western intelligence source. But it is difficult to interpret the data collected on the drones, their flight path and their technical specifications. The odds, a US source indicates, are fifty percent for each of the two possibilities. “We simply don’t have enough intelligence for both.”
Flight data indicates that the drones were lost and were trying to reacquire the GPS signal, as if they had been sent off course by Ukrainian electronic jamming systems. Other indicators, however, indicate the opposite. For example, they were unarmed, a sign of a possible test of air defense systems by the Russians without the risk of causing casualties. But many of the drones that Russia sends to Ukraine are decoys, designed to deplete Ukrainian air defenses.
Even the size of the flock, 20-21 drones entering Poland on the same night, is not exceptional: drones often fly in formations. In recent weeks alone, there have been several Russian drone attacks in Ukraine with over 400 drones in space at the same time.
