(Adnkronos) – On Sunday, voters in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia are called to the polls for local elections, a vote for mayors and city councilors in Germany’s most populous state, representing the first major electoral test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s governing coalition, which took office in May. The vote is likely to result in a strengthening of the far-right AfD party in a western region of Germany, far from its traditional eastern strongholds. Therefore, it is a first test for the ‘black-red’ government in Berlin to gauge the population’s mood on the new government team. “North Rhine-Westphalia is a kind of experimental laboratory,” explains Kristina Weissenbach, professor of political science at the University of Duisburg-Essen, quoted by the Financial Times. “We have many citizens with different income levels and cultural backgrounds. In a way, it reflects the whole of Germany.”
As an example of the new AfD’s grip, the newspaper cites the case of a Duisburg resident, Nevim Bayraktar, 55, a social worker. Last fall, she was participating in a protest to denounce the dilapidated conditions of her accommodation when she met an official from Alternative for Germany (AfD). “He was so kind and friendly,” she said, explaining that she didn’t immediately realize he was an AfD exponent. And he was “the only one there who stopped” to talk. A year later, not only is Nevim preparing to vote for the AfD, but she will run for the party in Sunday’s local council elections.
The AfD is likely to strengthen at the expense of both Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and its center-left coalition partners (SPD), whom voters blame for the continued broken promises. But while the CDU may still maintain control over many of the state’s wealthier cities, such as Düsseldorf, the Social Democrats are set to suffer heavy losses against the AfD in cities like Duisburg and nearby Gelsenkirchen. (continued)
“Local elections are local elections,” said Chancellor Friedrich Merz, responding to a question about the national impact that local elections in his state could have. While acknowledging the presence of “a certain attention to regional and federal politics” in local elections, for Merz they remain determined by individual candidates. Other members of the governing coalition, in power for four months and composed of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance and the Social Democrats of the SPD, have also attempted to downplay the significance of the election results.
“I assume that events in Berlin will not have a significant influence on the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia,” commented Dirk Wiese, general secretary of the SPD parliamentary group, originally, like Merz, from the region, quoted by DPA. “As is known, it is the largest and economically strongest federal state in the country,” he added, speaking of a territory that is home to almost 22% of Germany’s population of over 83 million.
The key question of the election, however, remains how much the far-right party will grow, which stood at 5.1% in the last local elections in 2020. In the February general election, the AfD became the third force in the region, ahead of the Greens, with 16.8%. “Especially in structurally weak and industrially declining regions, such as Gelsenkirchen or Duisburg, the AfD has a good chance of improving its results and establishing itself firmly,” explained political scientist Oliver Lembcke of the University of Bochum at the end of August. (continued)
At the moment it is not known whether the party will be able to obtain a mayoral or district capital position in Sunday’s elections. It is even possible that the decision will not emerge before the second round, two weeks later. The far right, for example, had already achieved a surprise victory in the Gelsenkirchen constituency in the February federal elections. The mining town in the Ruhr region, known for its former coal and steel industry and for being a Social Democratic stronghold, has the highest unemployment rate in Germany.
For the governing coalition parties, the key question is how much they will be damaged. In the February elections, the Union and SPD together obtained 49.3%. However, in national polls, their combined results fluctuate between 39 and 44%, which is equivalent to the lack of a majority in Parliament. In the last local elections in 2020, the CDU obtained 34.3%, while the SPD became the second party with 24.3%.
A clear affirmation of the AfD could raise renewed fears in the coalition between conservatives and social democrats in Berlin, which is trying to rebuild itself after a start marked by a series of internal disagreements. The upcoming discussions on social reforms could also become complicated, in the event of poor electoral results for both parties in North Rhine-Westphalia.
