(Adnkronos) – The high cost of living, taxation on the highest incomes, oil fund investments in Israel and relations with US President Donald Trump. These are the elements that characterize an “unusually polarized” and close election in Norway, where the polls opened this morning for about four million voters called to renew Parliament. A “truly epochal” and “unexpectedly suspenseful” election, as the Norwegian newspaper Vg wrote, with a surge in consensus for the right-wing populist Progress party, led by 48-year-old Sylvi Listhaug, already compared to Giorgia Meloni. While the Guardian speaks of a “Maga-fication” of Norwegian politics.
But according to polls, the most likely outcome will be a narrow victory for the centre-left, with a probable confirmation of the minority Labour government led by Jonas Gahr Store, prime minister since 2021, and former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as finance minister. “In light of the growing international turmoil following the election of Donald Trump, tariffs and various international conflicts, Stoltenberg’s return contributed to a sudden 10 percentage point increase for the Labour party within a month or two,” explained Peter Egge Langsaeher, associate professor of political science at the University of Oslo.
If the polls are confirmed in the results expected for this evening and Labour wins, the road will not be smooth. What Labour may have to face are long negotiations with smaller left-wing parties, particularly regarding oil fund investments in Israel. “It has been an election with many unexpected twists. Norwegians are waiting for the results with bated breath,” reads the Norwegian newspaper Vg.
The class and gender divide, which has led many young people to vote for the right, has been a “mobilizing factor on both sides of the political spectrum,” continues Vg. “For the left-wing parties, the Gaza war is an important issue, especially for Norwegians of immigrant origin and for young voters,” the newspaper continues, also pointing out that the Conservative party seems to have lost considerable support in favour of the Progressive party, while the Green party has unexpectedly gained more.
Johannes Bergh, senior researcher in the Norwegian National Election Studies program at the Institute for Social Research, said that among the main electoral themes are food and energy prices, wealth taxes, healthcare and trade policy with the United States. A year ago, Bergh said, it looked like Labour was doomed. But Stoltenberg’s appointment and the success of the meeting between the prime minister and Trump at the White House on the issue of trade turned the party’s fortunes around. “There is a clear feeling that they have done a good job” in relations with the United States, Bergh said. But there has also been an increase in support for the right, he added, stating that “it seems that there are two contrasting trends in Norwegian politics. One is the right-wing wave, especially among young people, and support for the incumbent government”.
“Recent polls indicate a close race, with the left slightly ahead,” Langsaeher said, admitting that “it is quite difficult to make predictions, given the high percentage of votes already cast and the fluctuations in polls during the election campaign. If the left wins, the most likely outcome would be the continuation of the minority Labour government with parliamentary support from several smaller left-wing parties.”
