(Adnkronos) – Crucial day for French politics, with Prime Minister Francois Bayrou expected at 3 p.m. at the Assemblée Nationale for a speech with no time limits, before facing the confidence vote that could mark the end of his government. After Bayrou’s speech, the eleven parliamentary groups will speak, with the Socialist Party first. The vote, scheduled behind closed doors, will take place in the afternoon and the results will not be released before 7 p.m. The outcome, barring any surprises, seems obvious: with the united opposition in the negative vote, Bayrou is about to become the first prime minister of the Fifth Republic to fall after requesting the confidence of Parliament.
The crisis erupted due to the austerity plan presented last July, which provides for 44 billion euros in cuts to reduce the country’s debt. Bayrou chose to anticipate by forcing his hand with a request for confidence that ended up turning into a political own goal. “Parties that hate each other unite only to bring down the government,” he declared yesterday, apparently now aware of the upcoming conclusion of his mandate. According to sources close to Matignon, quoted by Afp, Bayrou has already invited his ministers to a “convivial moment” this evening, almost an announced farewell.
For President Emmanuel Macron, who now finds himself having to manage one of the most delicate crises of his second term, the day opens up uncertain scenarios. The Elysée will have to choose whether to appoint a seventh prime minister or whether to call early elections to try to obtain a more solid majority. The first option seems more likely, also because Macron has ruled out resignation and does not intend to give way. However, political and social pressure is growing: according to an Odoxa-Blackbone poll published by Le Figaro, 64% of French people would prefer Macron to leave office rather than appoint a new prime minister, while 77% disapprove of his management, the worst figure since the beginning of his presidency.
The political front is fragmented and negotiations for the post-Bayrou are already underway. Macron has invited the centrist parties that support him to “work with the socialists”, but the hypothesis of a joint government is anything but simple. The leader of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, said he was “ready” to take over as prime minister, even presenting his own draft budget. However, several of the president’s allies remain opposed to this solution, while the Republicans, led by Bruno Retailleau, have already warned that it is “out of the question” to support a socialist prime minister.
Among the most concrete alternatives, there would be the hypothesis of a non-censure agreement with a center or center-right personality, which would allow the formation of a government capable of negotiating a stable majority. Among the names emerging for Matignon are the ministers Sébastien Lecornu (Defense), Gérald Darmanin (Justice), Catherine Vautrin (Labor and Health), Éric Lombard (Economy), in addition to the president of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand and the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian. The decision will have to be taken quickly, also in light of the mobilizations planned for the next few days: the protest day of the “Bloquons tout” collective on 10 September and the general strike on 16.
Meanwhile, Bayrou is preparing for his last speech as prime minister. In the speech scheduled for the afternoon, he will reiterate the need for an “unprecedented national effort” to contain the debt and will defend the line of rigor that has marked his nine months in government. But his fate – writes Le Figaro – seems already written: as a close collaborator of his declared, “the outcome is known, the battle is now being played out on the ground of the future political structure of the country”.
