(Adnkronos) – The new Pope? It will be the Secretary of State, Pietro Parolin. According to ChatGpt, which – as reported on the website of the French broadcaster Bfmtv – was asked by the editorial staff of the television program Tech&Co about Pope Francis’ successor a few weeks before the start of the Conclave and four days after the Pope’s funeral.
According to artificial intelligence, the current number two in the Vatican has a “27.6% probability” of becoming the next Pope. In the top 5, established with the o3 model – considered by the parent company OpenAi to be the best for advanced reasoning – are the Filipino “outsider” Luis Antonio Tagle, the president of the CEI Matteo Zuppi (about 15% chance), the Hungarian Peter Erdo and the Ghanaian cardinal Peter Turkson.
ChatGpt, which was asked not to consider press articles, used five criteria to develop its model: the sociology of the electoral college, the desire for continuity or rupture, governance and diplomacy, age and health, and finally ideological acceptability, i.e. the ability of the future Pope to synthesize the various internal currents.
Pietro Parolin has an advantage. “He combines the support of a significant portion of the 53 Europeans, the Italians eager to ‘bring the papacy home’ and many moderates from the South who see in him the guarantee of a gradual transition rather than a reversal of course. His long diplomatic experience reassures those who want curia reforms without upheaval,” says ChatGpt.
The outsider is the Filipino Tagle with a 24% probability. “He starts with a well-defined bloc: almost all 23 Asian cardinals, a number of Africans and Latin Americans (about 58 potential votes). He still lacks 30-35 votes, which he will have to negotiate with moderate Europeans. It’s doable, but not a given,” specifies the artificial intelligence, which is not ‘betting’ for now on Turkson, defined as an “African symbol”, whose chances will depend on the will of the cardinals to “cross two thresholds: the continent and the color of the skin. Today, he is more of a progressive ‘kingmaker’ than a favorite”.
Finally, there is a 12% probability that a surprise name will emerge from the Conclave, as happened in 1978 with John Paul I and in 2013 with Bergoglio. In this case, concludes ChatGpt, the Frenchman Jean-Marc Aveline could represent the right compromise if “the Italians and the cardinals of the South (Asia + Latin America + part of Africa) neutralized each other” during the vote.
