(Adnkronos) – Romania goes to the polls on Sunday 24 to elect a new president who could either give continuity to the ten-year Europeanist path undertaken by the outgoing Klaus Iohannis, or alternatively move away from the EU if the very strong far-right forces were to win. The outcome of the vote in Romania, an EU and NATO member bordering Ukraine, will be followed with great attention (and concern) by Brussels, which does not want to risk losing further certainties on its eastern front.
At the top of Romanian voters’ concerns is the high cost of living, with inflation running at around 5% – the highest in the EU. The country’s growing national deficit is also a hot topic, as are infrastructure delays and poor healthcare. The war in Ukraine, on the other hand, is mainly an issue for far-right voters, who strongly oppose Romania’s continued support for Kiev, increased national defence spending, and Bucharest’s increasingly prominent role on NATO’s eastern flank.
The first round of presidential elections to replace centrist Klaus Iohannis, in office for 10 years, will be held on Sunday, while the run-off is scheduled for 8 December. Between the two events, it is worth noting the parliamentary run-off expected on 1 December. There are 14 candidates to succeed Iohannis: centre-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, progressive Elena Lasconi, former far-right ultra George Simion and former centre-right Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca are in the front row. Last month a court barred another far-right candidate, MEP Diana Sosoaca, from running, accusing her of failing to respect “democratic values” with her anti-Semitic and pro-Kremlin statements, which risked jeopardising Romania’s membership of the EU and NATO.
For the polls, the favourite is Marcel Ciolacu with about 25%, despite accusations of corruption against his party and his unhappy economic management. The prime minister and leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), appreciated by European leaders and Giorgia Meloni, is practically certain to reach the run-off. In second place, but down to around 16%, is George Simion, the ‘colourful’ leader of the populist and radical right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), once a member of the ultras group ‘Honour et Patria’, a supporter of “peace in Ukraine like Trump” and whose party has stated that Holocaust education is “a secondary issue” that should not be taught in schools.
Just below Simion, with around 14%, is former Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca of the centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL), who governed together with the PSD in the outgoing ‘grand coalition’. On a par with Ciuca is Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union (USR), a progressive force. More detached is Mircea Geoana, former PSD leader and NATO deputy secretary general, an independent candidate who risks not going beyond 9%. ‘Forgotten’ by the national media but very popular in the ‘diaspora’, is finally independent candidate Calin Georgescu, who is aiming for an exploit. Polls are not considered very reliable in Romania, but analysts predict a Ciolacu-Simion run-off in which the former would start as the clear favourite, helped by the PSD’s strong organisation and the fact that he is up against a far-right opponent.
The Liberals of the PNL ended their government partnership with the PSD following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on Șoșoaca, which for Ciuca raised “questions about the state of democracy in Romania.” For the centre-right party, the court’s ruling was above all political: four of the five judges had been appointed by the PSD, and now that the far-right vote is no longer divided, Ciuca has seen his chances of losing in a possible run-off with Simion increase.
The PNL has said it does not want to reconstitute the coalition with the Social Democrats, but analysts say it may be ‘forced’ to do so: the parties agree on almost everything, and Ciolacu has ruled out any kind of alliance with the far-right AUR. Polls predict the PSD will comfortably win the parliamentary run-off with about 30% of the vote, followed by AUR with about 21%, the liberal USR – which has said it does not want to work with the PSD – with 17% and the PNL with about 14%. Based on the expected results, to have a parliamentary majority, the PSD and PNL would need the support of the UDMR, a small party representing the Hungarian minority.
