(Adnkronos) – Four unpredictable years with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. This is what China is preparing for. To possible new escalations of tensions over trade and Taiwan. However, there would also be opportunities for Beijing for a greater role on the international level, the Washington Post points out. In the Asian giant there are also those who hope for Elon Musk, a supporter of Trump’s campaign and with strong interests in China. They hope he can act as a ‘bridge’. On Weibo, some are proposing him as the next US ambassador to a China that is struggling to revive its economy after the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and which is registering a rise in youth unemployment.
“China would be happy to see him engaged in a role that brings the two countries to an understanding, there are opportunities in working together”, comments Wang Zichen, author of the ‘Pekingnology’ newsletter on Substack and researcher at the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank.
In the past few hours, Chinese leader Xi Jinping also congratulated Trump, who threatened 60% tariffs on Chinese products. But “many here, including the government, I think are preparing for some upheaval, for storms, no one knows – says Tang Shiping, professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai – I think no one really understands or has a vague idea of what Trump will be able to do in his second term”.
Relations between Beijing and Washington – Ivan Kanapathy, who has a past in the National Security Council, working in both the Trump and Biden administrations, is convinced – “will experience an increase in tensions in the first hundred days” and “there will be be an acceleration in competitive actions”. From duties to sanctions. But, the Post points out, this time, compared to the past, the Asian giant is more prepared. To the point that, for the nationalist site Guancha, China should thank Trump because “he has strengthened our determination” and “the capacity for” self-sufficiency in crucial sectors”.
And yet, the American newspaper points out, a new trade war could not come at a worse time for the People’s Republic. The Dragon “has been preparing for some time”, says Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, but another trade war would – in his opinion – be harmful because “given the current very difficult economic situation at home, a renewed trade war “would imply “a much more serious threat to China’s economic competitiveness”.
In the message to Trump, who said he considered the Chinese leader a “friend” and an “incredible guy”, Xi wrote that “history teaches that China and the United States gain from cooperation and lose with confrontation”, insisting for “stable relations”. It was 2018 when Trump, after trying the previous year to conclude a trade agreement with Xi, started the trade war on China, with tariffs on imports and sanctions for Chinese companies operating in the technology sector. Then the tycoon did not spare accusations against Beijing in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, “the Chinese virus”, he used to say.
The Biden administration, while maintaining tariffs and many Trump-era policies, has however tried to restart communication channels. Trump, observers say, may return to a deal-seeking approach. And for Susan Shirk, a China expert at the University of California, San Diego, in his second term in the White House, the tycoon could try to close an economic deal.
Without going into the details of the ‘Taiwan’ dossier, there is then the ‘geopolitical factor’, which could play to Beijing’s advantage, especially if Trump returns to isolationist tendencies. Thus, according to analysts, a second term could help the Asian giant if relations with US allies weaken under Trump. China, says Zhao, “can hope to dent US efforts to isolate it with a broader Western coalition” and “would certainly fight for its image as a more responsible power in contrast to the decline of international prestige of the United States”. Meanwhile, Beijing is looking for ways to stimulate growth. Premier Li Qiang just said he was “fully confident” in the Dragon’s ability to meet its 2024 economic goals. The government hopes to achieve GDP growth of “around 5%”.
